Monday, March 14, 2016

Pres Trump would be worse than Pres Hillary

So if Donald trump is the Republican nominee, the choice for conservatives will be vote for trump, vote for Hillary, vote for a third party/write in, or leave it blank.  Given the choice of trump or Hillary, here is why I would leave the ballot blank. 

President Donald Trump would be worse for conservatives than President Hillary Clinton.  Why? Because Trump would be just as likely to nominate liberal USSC justices, would continue Pres Obama's abuse of executive power, and he would suppress turnout for down-ballot races.  But most importantly, when Trump nominates a liberal judge or abuses executive power, the Republican party would be powerless to oppose him.

The one position you can absolutely trust with Trump is that you can't trust him on any position.  So those people who are holding on to the idea that Trump would be better than Hillary because of Supreme Court nominees alone are grasping at straws.  There is simply no evidence that Trump would nominate conservative justices.  Trump, as he likes to brag, is a businessman and he will do whatever makes the most sense to him at the time he nominates a justice.  Abortion, eminent domain, and torture are all issues that Trump has actively supported the liberal position on, and there is no reason to think he wouldn't nominate a justice who also supports the liberal position.

One thing you can absolutely expect from Trump is a continuation of the abuse of power that we have seen over the last eight years from Pres Obama.  Both men are cults of personality, who excite their supporters by telling them the dramatic actions they will take as president.  Trump has promised a 45% tariff on all goods from China, an action which would ignite a trade war we are unprepared to fight.  Eliminating Obamacare by executive order would be a great first step, but without action in Congress to replace it with something else, would be chaos.  And possibly worst of all, Trump's plan to roll back libel law protection could render every media outlet and even the conservative blogosphere subject to endless lawsuits for reporting the news.

Trump as the GOP presidential candidate would also be disastrous for the down-ballot races.  Trump, with his cult of personality, can make outrageous statements and get away with them.  But our liberal media would hold candidates for the US Senate, House and every local race accountable to Trump's positions.  The tenuous hold the GOP has on the US Senate right now could be thrown completely up for grabs with Trump, which means the RNC will have to spend more than it should to hold the Senate, if it can.  Worse yet, Senate and House candidates will have to decide whether or not to campaign with Trump, eerily similar to Democrats refusing to campaign with Obama in 2012.

Lastly, and this is the key, President Trump would leave the GOP unable to organize an opposition to any liberal action he takes.  If (when) Pres trump nominates a liberal judge, or triples Planned Parenthood funding by executive order, there will be no Republican opposition to oppose him.  President Trump will be the de facto leader of the GOP, and every elected Republican will be under tremendous pressure to follow his lead (see also Pres Obama and the TPP).  Pres Trump decides Loretta Lynch is a great choice to replace Anton Scalia? Uses executive action to grant amnesty to all illegal immigrants he decides are 'the good type'?  What GOP Senator is going to lead the opposition to their own president?  Democrats, on the other hand, would face no similar handicap.  Trump nominates a conservative judge?  Democrats rally their base in opposition and force a fight.  Trump cancels funding for Planned Parenthood because he is feeling conservative this week?  Democrats rally and fund-raise their base to the detriment of every GOP member of Congress.  It is a lose-lose proposition for the GOP.

A Trump White House carries all of the potential negative repercussions to the conservative agenda that Pres Hillary Clinton does, and none of the unifying potential.  'Better the devil you know' as goes the popular saying.  But when the choice is the devil you know, or the devil you don't but is the leader of your party, the risk vs reward calculation changes dramatically.  American is resilient and can probably survive either Pres Hillary or Pres Trump.  But the Republican party will only survive one, and the death of the GOP puts the nation itself at grave risk.


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