Despite the good news that Rand Paul has qualified for the next GOP debate main stage, the fact remains that Paul should drop from the presidential race, both by logic and by the needs of the party.
Logically, Paul has no groundswell of support that would give cause to keep running for president. Despite the ebb and flow of the Iowa caucus polls, Paul hasn't cracked 5% since last August, before the Trump-mania set in. His current average is 3.7%, which rates only 7th or 8th depending on the poll. In New Hampshire, Paul is similarly mired at 3.7%, having likewise not cracked 5% since August. Nationally, Paul is tracking at about 2%, which is below the margin of error for most polling, and he is edging downward, not up.
Despite Rand Paul's very enthusiastic supporters, there is no momentum, no grass roots mobilization of conservatives or even libertarians en masse. Sen Paul very cleverly used Twitter to make a counterpoint at the last debate that he didn't qualify for, but this week he would have to swing away and hit nothing but home-runs to get any traction with the GOP base.
At the same time, Sen Paul has a liability no other candidate in the race does; he has another election this year. Sen Rand Paul of Kentucky is up for re-election, in a contest he spent the last several years rigging to make sure he could qualify for, even while running for president. Despite criticism from local Republicans, Paul engineered a legal change in Kentucky from a primary state to caucus state, all so he could appear on the ballot for two positions (US Senate and President) at the same time. But this exercise in ego, which may have seemed well intentioned in 2014, may prove to be an Achilles heel in 2016. If Paul loses the caucus vote he personally engineered, his Democrat foes will have plenty of fodder to attack him with.
The GOP controls the US Senate by only 4 seats. Though the GOP is slightly favored to retain control, Sen Paul faces re-election in what should be a safe seat. It is his to lose, which is why he alone among the current GOP presidential candidates should give up the mirage and get back to the business of keeping his Senate seat. Not only would he help the GOP retain control of the Senate, a worthy goal no matter who wins the White House, but Sen Paul's libertarian voice is not replaceable in the Senate, if not the whole GOP Congress.
There are plenty of candidates left in the GOP field that should be quick to drop out. Bush, Huckabee, Santorum, Kasich, Christie and Carson are all polling on the margin of error. But all of them could hope to parlay a strong 3rd or 4th place showing into a vice presidential slot. Paul has no political math to offer for a VP slot, and would be a detriment to the party as a VP candidate because he would leave Kentucky as an open (and Dem winnable) seat.
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Sunday, January 10, 2016
The party of Trump is not my GOP
With only a few months to go before the Republican Party starts casting actual votes for the presidential nomination, the field is still wide open. There are eight (mostly) serious candidates left in the hunt- Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Rand, Rubio and Trump. Of these, I can fully support and get behind all but one of them- Donald Trump. As an elected official with the GOP (co-chair of Steele County in southern Minnesota) if Trump is the nominee I will be honor bound to resign my position if Trump is the GOP nominee. My reasons for this are simple: first, Donald Trump is not presidential, second, he would be bad for down ticket races, and third, he is not in fact a conservative.
Much has been made about Donald Trump's frontal assault on political correctness. While I and millions of other Americans appreciate Trump's willingness to not shy away from saying what liberals tell us is verboten, the fact is that Trump is politically incorrect not because he is pushing back against liberals but because he just doesn't have a filter on his speech. Trump simply says whatever is to his benefit to say, no matter the consequences. While this is politically satisfying, it is a terrible trait for a man who would be leading the US diplomatic effort around the world, and who would be need to pursuade Congress to legislate his plans. Trump does not persuade anyone- he uses fear and power to force his position.
Even a successful Trump presidential run would be problematic for the down ticket races. Minnesota doesn't have any statewide races in 2016, but nonetheless Trump's inflammatory rhetoric would be the yardstick by which every GOP candidates for Congress and state legislature would be judged. Trump as GOP candidate makes him the de facto leader of the party, which would open every Republican candidate to answer for Trump's every comment during the campaign. "Speaker Daudt, do you agree with your presidential candidate's plan to halt all immigration from Muslim countries?" These are the type of questions that the party doesn't want to hear.
But the biggest criteria in which Trump fails is that he is not actually a conservative. As I have proudly told local supporters, I am a conservative first and Republican second. That means my conservative principles come before my GOP affiliation. Trump is in no way a conservative, having donated to liberals (such as Hillary Clinton) and having espoused liberal ideas (eminent domain and amnesty when it suited him). Trump is an opportunist, willing to support whatever position that advances his short term interests. Even were he to be elected, he would be the bane of the GOP when he shifted positions on conservative ideology.
Donald Trump is a chameleon, who has no allegiance to any belief other than profit, and he would be true to that belief as a president. His lip service to conservative principles is just that-lip service. Trump as president would sell out any conservative position as it suited his mood, and the GOP would be pressured to follow suit.
If Donald Trump is the GOP nominee for president, I would have to step down from my elected position in the local party, because I couldn't recommend him to others. I can't say whether or not I would vote for him, though I suspect I would not. I would still work on behalf of local GOP candidates, but as an individual rather than as a party official. I've had several instances in the last few years where I have had to hold my nose to vote for a Republican candidate (i.e. CD1) but I can't hold my nose and vote for the leader of my party, I would hope that a Trump candidacy would be short lived, but were he to win I would have to look to another party to represent me.
Much has been made about Donald Trump's frontal assault on political correctness. While I and millions of other Americans appreciate Trump's willingness to not shy away from saying what liberals tell us is verboten, the fact is that Trump is politically incorrect not because he is pushing back against liberals but because he just doesn't have a filter on his speech. Trump simply says whatever is to his benefit to say, no matter the consequences. While this is politically satisfying, it is a terrible trait for a man who would be leading the US diplomatic effort around the world, and who would be need to pursuade Congress to legislate his plans. Trump does not persuade anyone- he uses fear and power to force his position.
Even a successful Trump presidential run would be problematic for the down ticket races. Minnesota doesn't have any statewide races in 2016, but nonetheless Trump's inflammatory rhetoric would be the yardstick by which every GOP candidates for Congress and state legislature would be judged. Trump as GOP candidate makes him the de facto leader of the party, which would open every Republican candidate to answer for Trump's every comment during the campaign. "Speaker Daudt, do you agree with your presidential candidate's plan to halt all immigration from Muslim countries?" These are the type of questions that the party doesn't want to hear.
But the biggest criteria in which Trump fails is that he is not actually a conservative. As I have proudly told local supporters, I am a conservative first and Republican second. That means my conservative principles come before my GOP affiliation. Trump is in no way a conservative, having donated to liberals (such as Hillary Clinton) and having espoused liberal ideas (eminent domain and amnesty when it suited him). Trump is an opportunist, willing to support whatever position that advances his short term interests. Even were he to be elected, he would be the bane of the GOP when he shifted positions on conservative ideology.
Donald Trump is a chameleon, who has no allegiance to any belief other than profit, and he would be true to that belief as a president. His lip service to conservative principles is just that-lip service. Trump as president would sell out any conservative position as it suited his mood, and the GOP would be pressured to follow suit.
If Donald Trump is the GOP nominee for president, I would have to step down from my elected position in the local party, because I couldn't recommend him to others. I can't say whether or not I would vote for him, though I suspect I would not. I would still work on behalf of local GOP candidates, but as an individual rather than as a party official. I've had several instances in the last few years where I have had to hold my nose to vote for a Republican candidate (i.e. CD1) but I can't hold my nose and vote for the leader of my party, I would hope that a Trump candidacy would be short lived, but were he to win I would have to look to another party to represent me.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
